Monthly Archives: August 2011

Social TV Landscape Cluttered

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The fast-growing social TV market is attracting a plethora of new players trying to leverage Facebook and other social media platforms.  The latest players in the game:

Yahoo’s acquired social TV startup IntoNow and a long list of apps (both from startups and larger companies).

Philo, which started by letting viewers share with friends by “checking-in” to TV shows, but is shifting from becoming a consumer social network and toward its brand marketing services.

GetGlue, whose investors include Union Square Ventures and Time Warner Investments, allows users to check-in to movies, TV, books, music, etc. It claims 1.4 million users and 9 million check-ins in July.

Miso claims 200,000 viewers.

Umami has raised $1.65 million in seed funding from Battery Ventures, NEA and other angels for its social TV platform. Like Miso and GetGlue, Umami provides TV viewers with a second screen experience to television content, adds contextual content around the programs viewers are watching, and offers a platform for networks to engage with consumers.

Zeebox in London, operating in stealth as “tBone”, raised $5 million in seed funds in June.

Zazum’s SeeLoveBuy™ mobile app makes TV instantly shoppable using iPhones.

There are dozens or hundreds more social TV startups and apps coming to post updates below to keep everyone up to date.

One More Thing — What Could Steve Jobs Do Now?

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Pundits and analysts are all trying to figure out:  What will happen to Apple now?  Without Steve Jobs as CEO, will it go downhill or, as some analysts have noted, continue developing on its technology roadmap for years to come?

My Japanese friend asked me while we were walking along San Francisco’s Crissy Field overlooking the bay and it occurred to me:  Steve isn’t gone, only from the corporate suite and daily commute.  He’s still chairman and can easily work at home to spend more time with his family. He can brainstorm new product and service ideas, talk with Apple managers via videoconferencing on the iMac or iPad, and plan totally new business ideas 24×7.  Now he has the time to contemplate and invent the future.  What could that be?  Here’s my best guess:

Personal Learning -  Steve has children so education is probably high on his agenda.  American schools perform largely along wealth lines; poor kids attending bad schools tend to perform poorly, which is dragging down the U.S.   Apple could leverage its iPad as a personal learning platform so all kids could get a top-flight education.  That means encouraging educators and others to develop a torrent of new learning apps.  With iStore for learning apps, Apple could revolutionize education and sell billions of iPads.  Perhaps that’s one reason why Apple is cutting a deal with China Mobile; China cannot afford thousands of universities to educate it young people so the iPad could become the next-gen schools.  Stanford is #1 in online learning so Apple has access to a huge group of tech-savvy educators. I think the future of Silicon Valley is Personal Learning (PL), which will dwarf the PC revolution since there will be billions of iPads and tablets sold annually in the future.

Apple Academies – Apple stores have become learning centers, but with cloud-based learning systems and software, they could become Apple Academies to train educators, mid-career professionals, small business people, families and creatives to develop exciting new iPad apps, complete with contests, showcases, galleries, award ceremonies and other savvy events. The global education and training market is enormous so Apple has major growth potential as an educational business.  Being a dropout, Steve could target people unable to pay for college or disaffected with schools.  Remember the famous Apple Genius Ad?  It could be the rallying cry for new mobile apps.

“Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes.

The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them.

About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them.

Because they change things.

They push the human race forward.

And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius.”

Apple Theme Parks — When Steve bought Pixar and turned it into one of the most successful studios in history, it was apparent that he wanted to become the next Walt Disney, perhaps the most beloved of all American chairmen.  Now that the iPod, iPhone and iPad are successful, Steve’s next logical step could be an Apple version of Disneyland and Disney World.  Not just costly brick-and-mortar, but a cloud-based virtual theme park based on the iPad and new devices that Apple hasn’t even announced it (to be saved for Steve’s future “One More Thing” announcements) filled with thrill rides, learning games, 3D simulated worlds, musical extravaganzas, and sports specials.  With virtual theme parks, he would become Uncle Steve, complete with characters from Pixar and Apple’s creative staff and followers.

Apple Studios – With Silicon Valley companies dominating, Apple could buy a Hollywood studio so Apple could showcase its future 3D and virtual movies in big screens around the world.  Like Disney, Apple would become a mega franchise controlling transmedia brands across all types of platforms, both online and offline, more like CBS and ABC than Pixar.  Going beyond roller coaster blockbusters, Apple could produce artistic “long tail” movies with soul that are now ignored by Hollywood.

Apple TV -  Nobody has figured out how to make a great Internet TV box, but Apple will keep trying. Perhaps the iPad will become the new Apple TV.  Perhaps the iPhone will be the controller for big HDTV screens.  In any case, Apple will want to control all the media boxes in homes and eventually offices.

So this is my forecast: Steve’s “One More Thing” will end up being a series of surprising, breakthrough announcements that totally change or overturn entire industries, as he has already done with music, PCs, and mobile phones.  Like the Daruma, Steve gets knocked down, but always manages to bounce back bigger and stronger than before, in spirit if not in body.  Frankly, I think he loves being a Comeback Kid. Right now, I bet he’s crafting his “One More Thing” strategy that will take us into the next few decades, which will long outlive many of us here today.  All I know is that he’s like a magician who keeps pulling rabbits out of hats and the rabbits keep multiplying and popping out.

Sheridan Tatsuno, August 28, 2011

Steve Jobs: In the Spirit of Daruma

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Steve Jobs is one of the greatest business people that has ever graced this earth.  From humble beginnings, he has shown us what human potential is all about.  From co-inventing the first Apple computer to adding beautiful fonts that were inspired by auditing calligraphy classes at Reed College, he took the mundane and the beautiful and created wonderful simplicity in design.  He showed us that all business is showbiz in the best sense of the word.

Steve embodies the spirit of Silicon Valley and California.  His graduation address at Stanford in 2005 is one of the truly great presentations. “Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.” will go down in history as one of the most memorable insights into creativity and competitiveness.  Savor his words, for his story is the story of Silicon Valley, the spirit of our times.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc, http://news.stanford.edu/news/2005/june15/jobs-061505.html

I wish Steve and his family many good times ahead together.  No matter what happens, all of us are deeply indebted to his vision, hard work and courage to do the impossible, to overcome the odds, not once, but many, many times.  His life reflects the spirit of Daruma — seven times down, eight up. As chairman of Apple, I know he will lead us into an amazing future, another step in his journey with us.

So, as Steve reminds us:  “Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish….Have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.”

The Mobile Computing Era Opens

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This week signaled a dramatic shift in Silicon Valley that will reverberate throughout business and society for the next few decades.  Google buys Motorola to sell mobile phones. HP drops out of the PC business. Mark Andreesen writes how the future is software.  IBM announces a neurochip that learns.  All these separate, but related announcements point to a shift toward mobile computing on the cloud powered by software that learns.

What does this mean for entrepreneurs and the tech community?  Having witnessed how the PC and Internet changed the world, here are my prognostications:

- Mobile apps and service designers, developers and programmers are the hot tickets right now.  Mobile apps are already saturating the market so apps curation services will be needed so users can find the apps they need from the mountain of apps.  Think Yahoo for mobile apps.

- iPad services will lead in tablet service innovation.  Instead of single apps, tablet users will want personalized services based on friends’ recommendations and their behavior that recommend and automatically serve integrated apps.  Example:  a mother with grade school kids who needs child care, errand, e-learning and other services to make life easier and cheaper.

- Chipmakers will stuff their chips with a variety of social media and mobile apps and services to make mobile devices faster and more effective.  IBM’s new neurochip will lead to “chips that learn” from user behavior and social networking interactions so the cloud will become a personalized brain, not just a big cloud of undifferentiated services.  Think a personal HAL smartphone “butler.”

- China, Southeast Asia, India, Latin America and the Mideast will increasingly drive mobile innovation due to their large, young populations.  Smart westerners will partner with offshore programmers to create new mobile apps and services for these growing markets.  Example:  India is pioneering mobile e-banking due to the lack of banks in many villages.

- Women, especially in developing regions, will be drivers for new mobile apps and services in retail, banking, learning, health, childcare, work and other crucial fields.  In most economies, women influence most of the consumer purchasing decisions so heed their needs and requirements.  In 2000, my friend sold MySimon.com for $700 million to CNET; the early adopters of comparison shopping were women.

So there will be an enormous number of new opportunities, just as we saw with the PC and Internet booms.  The key is to find urgent market needs — must-haves, not just nice-to-haves — and develop a simple, affordable solution.  Then you’ll be on your way to developing potentially a breakthrough venture.

 

U.S. vs. European Entrepreneurial Thinking

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In today’s Wall Street Journal, Kristof De Spiegeleer, CEO of Incubaid, a Belgian incubator argues that Silicon Valley startups are prone to a superficial approach because of the cultural and market forces in play in America.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2011/08/16/do-europes-startups-think-deeper-than-silicon-valleys/

While it’s true that U.S. ventures tend to seek the “low-hanging fruit” to survive because of the intense competition, what De Spiegeleer is really addressing is the unipolar nature of the U.S. market vs. Europe’s multipolar markets. It’s easier to roll out products and services to a single, large U.S. market compared to a variety of European markets. Thus, European companies must find commonalities at a deeper level to bridge the cultural, language and economic gaps. But a multipolar approach is not necessarily better; it’s just an appropriate approach to a multifaceted European market. Fast, incremental innovation is more appropriate for the hyper-competitive, unipolar U.S. market.  But even in the U.S., marketers need to tailor their brand when selling to the fast-growing Hispanic and Asian Americans markets, so even the U.S. market is becoming more multipolar due to strong immigration.

In Silicon Valley,”Be fast or dead.” Most ventures die for lack of momentum and drive, not deeply-conceived technology. Pursuing a slower European approach might work in Europe, but in Silicon Valley that venture would be passed by fast-moving competitors. Google faced 47 search engine competitors, but it marketed itself much more aggressively.

One company that has learned how to market effectively is Rovio, the creator of the popular Angry Birds game. Started in Finland, it’s now growing fast in the U.S.. Rovio shows that European startups can start as “deep” companies (Rovio developed Angry Birds by studying its previous games) and grow fast in the U.S. by adopting a “superficial” (horizontal) U.S. marketing and development approach.  Thus, Rovio demonstrates that neither approach is better than the other. They’re just different adaptations to different markets or, as the saying goes, “Evolve or die!”.

Silicon Valley’s Short-Lived Bubble is Over

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The sound of the bubble popping was Silicon Valley.  The recent market drop has shut the IPO market, at least for a while, until investors figure out whether the weak markets are a prelude to a double-dip recession or just another hiccup in the slow recovery. 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/08/14/tech-bubble-not-anymore.html

What does this mean for entrepreneurs and startups?

- Back to bottomline business.  Startups need to validate their business models by finding paying customers and generating cash flow.  Business concepts and revenues-without-profits will no longer attract VCs, M&As or IPOs.  You have to create a real business for a change.

- The IPO shutdown is an opportunity for sales and marketing people who can find customers and generate revenues fast.  So expect to see fewer engineers being hired and more sales, marketing and business development folks.

- Many entrepreneurs planning on entering the U.S. will wait longer to build their businesses at home and possibly even bypass the U.S. to find easier, faster growth markets nearby.  For European ventures, Turkey is one of the largest economies with solid growth prospects.  For Japanese and Asian ventures, the old Four Tigers (Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong) are the best prospects, with Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and China a bit tougher for small ventures to enter.  Also, it’s often easier to raise money in Hong Kong than Silicon Valley.

I think this market slowdown is a useful correction for Silicon Valley, which was getting too frothy for my tastes.  Enthusiasm and greed were overshadowing common sense, hard work and prudence.  But in the mid term, this “bump in the road” will prevent Silicon Valley from going off the cliff again.

Kickstarting Growth in a Double-Dip Recession

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It looks like the U.S., Europe and Japan are going into a double-dip recession, while Silicon Valley is facing talent wars and rising rents.  This downturn will be less catastrophic than the 2008 collapse, but still tough for the millions of unemployed people.  How can we kickstart growth in this Recession?  How can Silicon Valley help since it’s booming right now?  Here are some new ideas for kickstarting the economy:

The White House just liberalized Startup Visas for immigrants so entrepreneurs can get green cards to launch their ventures in the U.S.: http://linkd.in/qktWei. It’s about time that Obama woke up!  Now the U.S. Citizen & Immigration Services (USCIS) will streamline the EB-5 visa process, making it possible for entrepreneurs who invest at least $250,000 to get a green card.  See the USCIS site:  http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis, Twitter page:  http://twitter.com/#!/search/uscis

The revised EB-5 visa process will enable more immigrants to set up companies, but tech companies coming to Silicon Valley will find a bidding war for tech talent.  More immigrant-entrepreneurs will further heat up recruiting and rents. Already, Canadians and Europeans are heading to San Francisco and Silicon Valley, only using their hometowns are launching pads. http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Startups+flock+Silicon+Valley+Canada+cities+small+business/5205920/story.html

To launch fast, I recommend hiring your tech talent offshore in places like Eastern and Western Europe for high-level talent since Silicon Valley salaries are skyrocketing (easily 3X to 4X Eastern European salaries).  You can find plenty of seasoned marketing/sales and business development talent in Silicon Valley, but the tech recovery is already making top talent more scarce so move quickly.

Silicon Valley VCs are moving abroad to be closer to the action in fast-growing regions like India and China. http://bit.ly/qOLMOK   This will create opportunities for Indian and Chinese expat returnees to their homes, but they may be lured back to the U.S. by the revised EB-5 rules.

With the stock market downturn and the prospects for a double-dip recession, business will get tougher, but changing government policies, recruiting wars and shifting VC investing are creating new opportunities for alert entrepreneurs.

Silicon Valley’s Global Role

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Silicon Valley has long been in the news as the beacon of technological innovation.  From semiconductors to iPads and tablets, the valley is constantly undergoing a constant metamorphosis to higher levels of sophistication.

But the global economy is shifting to developing nations, which lack the resources, governance and talent available in Silicon Valley.  How can they connect with the valley to develop their companies and industries?  How can Silicon Valley companies, especially small firms, tap into these burgeoning markets?

Silicon Valley venture capitalists (VCs) are spreading their wings in China, India and other new markets, but their overall clout is minimal.  There are millions of entrepreneurs and startups seeking funding and help so they need a new model of development, which relies more on bottom-up networking that leverages the Internet and mobile phones, not just top-down funding from the West.

This site is the beginning of this transition to a new model of industrial development that bridges top-down Silicon Valley VC thinking with bottom-up entrepreneurship around the world.

In this new global era, Silicon Valley can play several critical roles:

- Inspiration and a source of ideas about emerging technologies and businesses

- A market for outside companies seeking to break into the U.S. market

- A source of business and engineeering talent with global connections and experience

- A funding source through its VCs and angels

- A sounding board for foreign companies who want feedback of their business ideas and models

- A launch pad for companies going global

- A training ground for new entrepreneurs

- A global networking hub linked by the Internet and smartphones

- And many new roles that will emerge in the coming years

We welcome you to join us in this journey to redefine Silicon Valley’s role in the global economy.  In this century, it is no longer Silicon Valley operating apart from the world, but more tightly linked with emerging regions.  Our mission is to define and create this Global Silicon Valley.